On the fourth day of action at Melbourne Park tennis tipster Gavin Mair thinks a potential upset is on the cards as 19-year old Jabuk Mensik takes on the 6th seeded Casper Ruud.
- Tsitsipas highest profile casualty so far
- Ruud looks vulnerable
- Mensik has all the tools
The Australian Open experienced its biggest upset so far as 2023 finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas bowed out in the first round against rock solid American youngster Alex Michelsen. The Greek endured a slump throughout 2024 and the new year has not led to an uptick in his form.
Grigor Dimitrov also exited at the first hurdle due to a hip injury. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic all safely navigated their way out of the starting blocks although Djokovic didn’t inspire confidence with a struggling showing against Grand Slam debutant Nishesh Basavareddy.
In the women’s event the biggest stars are all through, with Jelena Ostapenko the highest seed to fall at the hands of Belinda Bencic. The Swiss player was however the market favourite to win that contest.
Meanwhile Naomi Osaka came through a quality three set encounter against Caroline Garcia in a reverse of fortunes from their meeting at the same stage 12 months ago.
On day four I think another minor upset is on the cards with 6th seed Casper Ruud in serious danger of exiting the tournament at the hands of 19-year old wonderkid Jakub Mensik.
Mensik on the rise
Czechia’s Jakub Mensik will become a household name before too long.
If you were to design the perfect tennis player you would pick many of Mensik’s attributes for your ideal prototype. The Czech is athletic, can cover his baseline with speed and agility, bomb serves at will, can hit you off the court, and has a good dose of variety to boot.
He is a player on a very clear ascent towards the top 10 in the rankings. It is a matter of when not if he establishes himself near the summit of the sport.
Mensik has been in impressive form to start this season. He enjoyed quarter-final runs in both Brisbane and Auckland where he was narrowly defeated in tiebreaks by Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Nuno Borges, both of whom are classy operators on the ATP tour.
He enjoyed impressive wins over Ben Shelton, Pablo Carreno Busta and Mikhail Kukushkin, and also dominated Dusan Lajovic. Throughout these matches his performances have been impressive and the signs are he is piecing his game together.
There will be ups and downs along the way but he is in good form currently and his second round encounter with the beatable Casper Ruud is a perfect opportunity for him to show the world what is about to come.
In round one he bashed down 31 Aces and won 82% of his first serve points en route to a handy victory over the dangerous Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Ruud awakening?
The signs are there that Mensik is going to cause Casper Ruud some bother.
The Norwegian is capable of playing to a high standard on a hard court as his 2022 US Open final proves. However, that result is very much the outlier in the Slams as his next best efforts at the Australian Open is 2021’s 4th round finish and a similar outcome in New York last season.
I was quite optimistic about how his hard court campaign would go in Australia as he finished 2024 in better than expected form with a semi-final finish at the World Tour Finals in Turin.
His early showings at the United Cup were also positive as he defeated the highly regarded duo of Tomas Machac and Hubert Hurkacz. When he is at full concentration and intensity he is able to beat strong players on this surface.
It was therefore disappointing to see him have an almighty struggle against Jaume Munar in the first round of this event.
Spanish baseliner Munar is about as journeyman as it gets. He doesn’t have big weapons and uses intensity and work rate to drag scrappy tennis out of opponents. Matches with Munar typically indicate how well a player is performing and it is now difficult to write positively about Ruud’s form, which I have downgraded after the first round.
Ruud explained his performance against Munar saying, “It’s always tricky because he knows my game, I know his game, and we are good friends also. I told him at the net, I got a bit lucky at the end. I’m happy I stepped up and played some good points when I had to. In a way, I refused to lose. It wasn’t necessarily pretty always, but it worked.”
While it is true that Ruud was able to lift his game in the final set it is not a sustainable strategy once the level of opposition improves, and that applies to Mensik.
Mensik vs top 10
Mensik has familiarity with playing top 10 guys and enjoyed two wins over Andrey Rublev last season.
He also experienced three defeats but took a set off both Djokovic and Alex De Minaur, while extending Hurkacz to five sets at the second round here 12 months ago.
This is a match that is winnable for Mensik if he sets his mind to it and it seems a reasonable expectation for him to do so given his likely career trajectory. He has every tool in his kit, while Ruud is also a beatable opponent with a far from stellar hard court Grand Slam record.
He is talking confidently of his chances here saying, “In previous matches I played very evenly with the top players. I could often beat them and sometimes I did. So I’ll go into this with a winning attitude like I do in every match and I think I have a great chance with my form.”
Ruud is an understandable favourite for this match as the tournament’s 6th seed. But there is plenty of upside in picking Mensik who has a good shot here at landing his against-odds 2.24 price.
It would be a surprise to see a three set blowout in either direction, and Betfair Sportsbook backers should consider quotes of Mensik to win and both players to win a set when these markets become available.
